Welcome to the Future

What You Just Witnessed Is A Preview, Not a Protest

The result is in. Hannah Spencer, the Green Party's candidate in Gorton and Denton, has won, becoming the first Green to win a Westminster by-election, and the party's first ever MP in northern England. She took 14,980 votes. Nearly 41% of the total cast. Reform's Matt Goodwin came second with 10,578. Labour's Angeliki Stogia limped in third with 9,364.

The Green majority was 4,402. In a seat Labour won by 13,413 votes just eighteen months ago. The optics do not look good for Starmer. After blocking Burnham, Labour finished third, in Greater Manchester.

And then there is Advance. Nick Buckley MBE, local man, charity founder, the candidate who actually knew the streets he was standing in. He polled 154 votes, 5 less than the Monster Raving Loony Party. I'll leave it to you to decide whether Advance has an electoral future.

Spencer used her victory speech to take aim at "divisive figures" who "scapegoat" others. The irony of that language, deployed on the night election observers reported "concerningly high" levels of family voting at polling stations, appeared to be lost on her. Manchester City Council, whose Labour politicians had previously enjoyed the support of the bloc Muslim vote, not surprisingly, disputed the claim made by a neutral organisation that works in partnership with the Electoral Commission.

Reform's Matt Goodwin declared that his party had "embarrassed Labour." He's not wrong. Nonetheless, the aim was not to embarrass Labour, they're capable of that all by themselves, the aim was to win the election. Something that Reform did not even come close to doing.

'We're not resorting to sectarian politics to get us over the line...'

Goodwin also accused the Greens of "riding a dangerous wave", which suggests that even he, standing in the rubble of his own second-place finish, understands what actually happened here.

Labour's party chair called it "clearly disappointing." Sir John Curtice said it would make life for Keir Starmer "even worse." Both statements are accurate. Both miss the point entirely.

This was not a protest vote. This was not a working-class revolt against a tired government. This was a sectarian machine, operating in plain sight and winning.

As for Spencer herself, she found time in her victory speech to apologise to the plumbing customers she's had to let down, because she's "heading to Parliament." A charming detail. The kind the press will lead with, because it is considerably easier than explaining what actually delivered her that seat.

The Green Party would have you believe that hope and solidarity won them the Gorton and Denton by-election. I beg to differ.

What this by-election gave us was a window into the future of the United Kingdom. A future where attempts to rig elections are no longer hidden. Where sectarianism plays a dominant role. Where the flag of Pakistan is openly waved in the streets of an English constituency.

It will only get worse. They will be emboldened by this. After all, in the end, the result wasn’t even close. None of this should surprise anyone who has been paying attention.

I’ve been at this for approaching eight years. Everything I have been documenting, everything I have been warning about, is exactly what you witnessed. The institutions dismissed it. The press ignored it. And yet here we are.

Which brings me to the question everyone on the right is now avoiding - what does this mean for Reform?

Reform need to win seats like Denton and Gorton if they are serious about the next General Election. That they didn’t come close is significant. What it tells you is that they do not have the experience to fight the cartels.

You cannot parachute in PPE graduates and expect them to understand what they’re walking into. Enthusiasm is not a strategy. Optimism is not a ground operation.

But this is not a counsel of despair. We know it can be done, because we have done it.

In Oldham, election after election, we have faced these exact tactics and beaten them. We have defeated the metropolitan elite, the mobsters, and their bloc voting Muslim partners in 4 consecutive elections where we took out their party leaders and took the council into no overall control.

By whatever means necessary, the Greens got their candidate over the line in Gorton and Denton. The tactics they and Labour used only surprised people who have never witnessed them before. We have. And we won anyway.

Experience is not transferable from a seminar room. If Reform are serious, they need to start learning from the people who have actually fought this battle and not from those who have merely read about it.

I'm Raja Miah. For seven years, I led a small team that exposed how politicians protected the rape gangs. Before that, I spent over a decade safeguarding children and protecting communities from extremists.

If my words have ever helped you make sense of a broken system, if they’ve ever made you feel seen, heard, or hopeful, please don’t scroll past.

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To my friends in Reform and all the others who now understand the true scale of what we face, I am here to help. I can help defeat the Pakistani sectarians and Islamists. You only need ask.

Raja 🙏