Divided We Fall

The Right's Masterclass in Political Self-Destruction

The moment has arrived. Reform UK polls consistently above 25% and rising. Conservative shadow ministers abandon ship for Farage's party. A Labour stronghold with a 14,000 majority falls to candidates promising immigration crackdowns and deportation flights. A looming by-election in another Labour stronghold sees Reform running the kind of professional campaign machinery that right-wing populist parties have never managed to build before.

Except it isn't. Because just as victory comes within reach, the Right has chosen to fragment itself into extinction.

The foundations were solid. Nigel Farage spent 2024 proving there was real appetite for right-wing populist politics in Britain. Reform won seats. Voters who wanted tighter immigration controls responded. The polling vindicated his strategy. Some MRP models suggest Reform could win a parliamentary majority if an election were held today. They proved they could overturn massive Labour majorities by winning Runcorn and Helsby in 2025, turning a 14,000 Labour lead into a Reform victory by just six votes. Next week's Denton & Gorton by-election has become a genuine three-way fight, with Reform running a professional campaign that could deliver another shocking upset.

Conservative politicians are defecting in droves. Shadow Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick defected in January, followed by former Home Secretary Suella Braverman. The establishment is watching Reform potentially march into Downing Street.

Instead of uniting to seize this moment, the Right is tearing itself apart.

The Splinter Factions

Ben Habib, former Deputy Leader of Reform UK, resigned in November 2024 over disagreements with Farage's leadership style and launched Advance UK in June 2025. Habib criticised Reform UK as being too personality-driven, describing it as a "protest party led by the Messiah". His pitch goes beyond personal insults. While both parties promise to repeal the Human Rights Act and leave the ECHR, Advance UK adds requirements like making MPs swear on the Bible or take a secular oath recognising Britain as a Christian country. Their immigration policy calls mass immigration a "National Emergency" requiring mass deportations with detention in secure facilities.

The party gained endorsement from Tommy Robinson in August 2025, followed by Elon Musk, who declared "Advance UK will actually drive change. Farage is weak sauce who will do nothing". Habib claims his party has grown to over 30,000 members in just two months, making it "the seventh-largest party in the UK".

Rupert Lowe, elected as a Reform MP in 2024, was suspended from the party in March 2025. He launched Restore Britain in June 2025, advocating the deportation of all illegal immigrants and promising to restore "Christian principles".

In February 2026, he converted it into a national political party, explicitly attacking Reform and saying it "will not include failed ministers or those tainted by failures of the past". Lowe has promised that "on day one of a Restore Britain Government, both halal and kosher slaughter would be outlawed," declaring such practices "cruel," "sick," and "barbaric." The party's official social media account has since posted that "A British passport doesn't make you British."

The party attracts support from those who want to reverse Britain's demographic changes, with emerging positions that British citizenship should not guarantee equal rights and that non-native British citizens (presumably determined by skin colour or possibly proof of ancestry pre-WWII, though the exact criteria remain unclear) could face deportation for crimes, becoming a financial burden, or failing to integrate.

Supported by ethno-nationalists, Restore Britain's underlying narrative is to take back the demographics of the UK to its pre-World War II profile, with the strap-line that "millions will go." This goes significantly beyond Reform's civic nationalism toward explicit ethnic politics that Farage has consistently avoided.

Outside both groups, UKIP still marches in provincial towns with a few hundred supporters carrying crucifixes and waving union flags, but their electoral relevance has disappeared entirely. The party that once won the European Parliament elections now struggles to field candidates and loses deposits in council elections. They remain fixated on street demonstrations and symbolic politics and are unable to play any meaningful role in the parliamentary arithmetic required to actually changes policy.

Meanwhile, Tommy Robinson, operates in his own ecosystem. Street protests, online following, explicit anti-Islamic messaging. He has little interest in parliamentary politics and actively disdains electoral processes as corrupt establishments. His supporters prefer rallies to voting booths, convinced that direct action and online activism matter more than winning constituencies. They measure success in crowd sizes and social media engagement rather than seats or vote shares.

Each is a leader in their own right. Each claims theirs is the way. Each appear more divided than ever before. Most telling is that even Lowe and Habib, both having fallen out with Reform, cannot work together. Despite sharing similar grievances against Farage's leadership, they have launched competing parties rather than joining forces. The very people who left Reform citing the need for unity and serious politics immediately fragment further, proving they cannot build the coalitions they claim the movement needs.

This reveals the deeper problem. These splits are not just ideological. They are personal. Farage's dominance created rival egos who cannot subordinate themselves to anyone else's leadership. Having spent years criticising Reform's personality-driven politics, both Lowe and Habib immediately created their own personality-driven vehicles.

The Right fragments not just because of policy differences but because none of these men appear to be able to accept playing second fiddle to the others.

Beyond Electoral Arithmetic

Reform could be forming the next government. Instead, they watch their potential victory get carved up by competing egos who prefer ideological purity to securing power to be able to implement the changes their voters actually want.

There is electoral space for tougher immigration policy including leaving the ECHR, repealing the Human Rights Act, ending multiculturalism, mass deportations of illegal migrants, proper integration requirements, restoration of British cultural dominance. Voters have shown appetite for these changes. The electoral mathematics now exist to deliver them. But instead of uniting behind a program that could win parliamentary majorities, the Right fragments over who gets to lead and exactly how far to push the agenda.

The fragmentation drives competing factions toward increasingly radical positions. Restore Britain's two-tier citizenship proposals and bans on religious slaughter practices represent a different political calculation than Reform's approach. Advance UK demands MPs swear Christian oaths and completely rejects the influence of international institutions including the United Nations.

Where Reform focuses on illegal immigration and civic nationalism, its rivals seek to redefine the boundaries of legal citizenship, restrict religious practices, and re-establish the role of Christianity in modern day Britain. These are not refinements of the same strategy. This is a fundamentally different approach. One that risks people distancing themselves from policies that many would consider unpalatable.

The New Mathematics of Defeat

The mathematics are changed. You're not just splitting the vote five ways and Labour wins every marginal seat. You are now scaring away the very people Reform reached out to in order to win seats.

• The suburban moderates who supported immigration controls will not support deportations based on ancestry.
• The pragmatists who wanted integration will not vote for religious food bans and the backdoor expulsion of their Jewish and Muslim neighbours.

Each harder position shrinks the coalition as well as further splitting it. Labour wins not because the Right divides its existing voters, but because the Right drives away the new voters it needs to govern.

Lowe launched his party despite the mathematical problems this creates. Habib has suggested the movements could work together but this is only possible if Advance UK closes down and he agrees to work under Lowe and his team of advisors leadership. Farage faces continuous criticism from harder-line voices who view any electoral pragmatism as betrayal of the cause.

The Online Right cheers every split. Sharp rhetoric gets retweeted. Pure positions win followers. No compromise gains applause. But while their supporters spend their time in endless social media squabbles, Labour MPs count their safe seats and Conservative strategists position themselves as the adults in the room who can actually govern.

Handing Victory to the Enemy

Every fractured vote and every alienated moderate hands power back to the people who refused to control immigration. Who ignored working-class communities. Who dismissed concerns about integration as racism. The same politicians who created the problems get another five years to make them worse because the Right cannot unite around electable positions.

Farage understands that power comes through parliamentary arithmetic. His critics view electoral pragmatism as betrayal of principle. They prefer ideological purity to actually implementing immigration controls. They would rather maintain doctrinal consistency than change government policy.

Politics is not a purity test. It is the business of winning seats to implement policies. A movement that fragments into competing factions while simultaneously driving away suburban voters chooses to keep Labour implementing the exact opposite of everything its supporters want.

The populist breakthrough of 2024 proved these voters existed. Millions wanted controlled immigration. Proper integration. An end to multicultural orthodoxy. They voted accordingly.

Now they watch their representatives destroy that achievement through ideological escalation. Restore Britain's ethnic targeting matters more to its supporters than building coalitions capable of governing. Advance UK's constitutional Christianity matters more than winning the suburban seats that determine parliamentary majorities. UKIP's historical claims matter more than current electoral relevance. Robinson's street politics matter more than changing actual policy.

Labour benefits from both dynamics. They do not need to defeat the Right in argument. They watch as competing factions split their opponents' vote while harder positions drive away the moderate voters Reform needs for a majority.

While the Right fragments over purity tests and leadership disputes, the same Labour ministers implement the same immigration policies. The same communities get transformed. The same concerns get dismissed as extremism. The same problems persist and worsen.

The voters who turned out for change in 2024 get nothing. The Right fragments further into smaller, purer factions. Labour governs with a coalition that includes many who opposed their policies but fear the alternatives more.

That is how movements destroy themselves. They mistake ideological intensity for electoral strength until there is nothing left to fragment. The borders stay open. The communities keep changing. Labour keeps governing. The Right keeps dividing itself.

The establishment does not need to win the argument. It just needs to let its opponents lose it for them.

We are not where we are by accident. We will not get where we need to be if we leave it to those that were part of the cover up to deliver justice. Stand with me.

I’m Raja Miah. For seven years, I led a small team that exposed how politicians protected the rape gangs. Before that, I spent over a decade trying to stop violent extremists exploiting abandoned communities.

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